Major Utah cities covered in this report: These Utah real estate reports, data, forecasts, and market trends are provided for informational use. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. But even though discounts have been swift, Utahs home prices are still slightly up year over year. Site Map | FastExpert, inc. 2021. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Some investors flip houses, others wholesale them. For September of 2022 Utah saw the median sale price remain flat compared to August and is still up almost 6% from 2021. Where do we go from here? About Us All Rights Reserved, The great housing market reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. John Burns Real Estate Consulting now expects U.S. home prices to fall 20% to 22%. The counties covered by this report added more than 35,000 new jobs over the past year, which was also a growth rate of 2.6%. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. Even with todays rising mortgage rates, it will continue to be the time to buy a house in Utah. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca pose for a photo in their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. Now, we still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said. The housing market in Utah is still highly competitive since the population continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and the quality of life is high. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. Nationwide, an increasing number of firms have downgraded their forecasts and predict U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023, Fortune has reported. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Even as mortgage rates in recent weeks have ticked down slightly, economists are expecting higher rates to continue to dampen sales throughout 2023. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. Branca said hes struck by how wild todays home buying reality is. The 2022 for-sale home supply is expected to begin recovering from recent declines, but millennial demand will likely keep supply limited through at least 2025. By Sarah Burns of The Salt Lake Local Real Estate Group, October 21, 2021 Utah State #2 in Housing Price Increases Utah's equity gains sat at 28.3% between 2020 and 2021, making Utah #2 in housing . Is the Utah housing market going to crash in 2023? 2022's housing market follows Utah's hottest housing year ever . 2022 housing market forecast So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. The impact of the correction on Utahs real estate market should be softened by its robust economy and limited home inventory. Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. Here are their year-over-year predictions for the Salt Lake City housing market in 2022: Forecasted home sales change: +15.2%. TREC:Info About Brokerage Services,Consumer Protection Notice. But high mortgage rates, some weeks hovering over 7%, did trigger a type of collapse in demand and sales. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Utah housing prices down from spring peak but theyre still higher than last year. A realty sign at a property in the Salt Lake City on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. However, it is also the third-most populous city in Utah, with a population of 116,961. But its not the bubble we know, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. Thats a good thing, because they were overpriced anyway, right? Perry said. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Wood, the Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, detailed his forecast report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, explaining why he still feels optimistic for real estate even if 2023 wont be a year of celebration.. In January 2023, there were 8,551 homes for sale in Utah, up 81.9% year over year. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. Their goal is mainly to make a profit from investing in real estate but each of them has different approaches and strategies to achieve their goals. If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until finally turning negative 2.1% in December, Wood wrote in his report. The median sale price was up 5.6% in September 2022 Y-O-Y, but the number of homes sold dropped 26.7%. Utahs housing market is starting to feel the rising interest rates, resulting in plateaued price growth. These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. When he thinks about what his parents life was like in the same window of time in their lives, he said it blows his mind. Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. The Midwest, he said, will likely see minimal price increases.. The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . A year from now whoevers right has to shave their beard off.. While overvalued does not necessarily mean that a housing market will crash, these markets are at a higher risk of a sharper correction when economic conditions change. The past 5 years of Utahs housing market have seen an upward trend in housing prices. After the next seven months, the median price fell by 14% to $485,829, erasing month-over-month percent increases until "finally turning negative 2.1% in December," Wood wrote in his report. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! By comparison, interest rates 20 years ago averaged between 6%-7%, and 1981 experienced interest rates of 16%. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. What is the housing market like right now? It would be a huge understatement to say that it has upended the way we do things in the real estate industry and has caused some major disruptions and setbacks in many peoples plans. Gone are the days of brutal competition. It was the year that put homeownership far out of reach. Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. However, prices are still significantly higher and homes are selling faster compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, noted Daniel Hale, Realtor.coms chief economist. Sign up now for a free 7-day trial and get 15% off on your subscription. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. The governor said his proposed budget should translate to about 1,100 new low-income units across the state. The Utah housing market has experienced consistent growth in real estate throughout the past five years, but it started to take off in mid-2020. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. Below is the latest Utah housing market trends analysis. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. He has taken his life experiences working with people and transitioned into helping families and individuals make the very best decisions when it comes to real estate. Agents receive this question at least 10 to 15 times per week. Homes are under construction in South Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. Blame remote work, not speculative bubble, Fed study says, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. He noted in the early 1980s there were a few (quarterly) periods where prices actually declined before hitting a positive trajectory soon after. Love hiking, biking, or camping? Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. Our Utah real estate market data is updated quarterly to aid in your real estate forecasts. San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. Property values will likely decline over the next 6 to 12 months and then flatten in the Utah housing market. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. Nationwide, 25% of homebuyers searched to move to a different metro area between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Login. However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. While this may be good news for home buyers, rates will still be higher than they have become accustomed to. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. Therefore, with the current small but significant price change, a seller will realize enormous overall growth and equity increase. 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Realtor.com has predicted that the Salt Lake City region will be the top housing market in the country for the year with an anticipated price and sales growth of 8.5% and 15.2% respectively. My current forecast is that mortgage rates will trend lower as we move through the year. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. The U.S. housing market is going through what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has called a difficult correction and a reset as it comes off the tail end of a pandemic frenzy fueled housing bubble. In its fight with record inflation levels throughout 2022, the Fed made a series of aggressive borrowing rate hikes, which translated to a spike in mortgage rates that priced or spooked buyers out of the market. Check! Copyright: 2023 Redfin. Salt Lake City Real Estate Market Forecast, Salt Lake (Utah state) home price prediction. And while the days of sub-3% rates are gone, they are not expected to go exorbitantly high. The median sale price for a house in Salt Lake City has reached $550,000, increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, and the median number of days on the market was 32, compared to 17 in September 2021. Yes! We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. Utah remains a sellers market as inventory levels have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. Its going to be tough for real estate agents. Joining Good Morning Utah to share what to expect for Utah's housing market for 2022 is Ryan Kirkham with Summit Sotheby's and Utah realestate.com. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. This would place . increase. However, as the Federal Reserve Bank started using its economic power to fight back against inflation, which has reached a forty-year high, by increasing interest rates, the Utah housing market is beginning to show signs of a significant slowing down. As a result, average days on market have increased, and sellers are becoming more open to negotiation. Therefore, Wood is predicting a couple of quarters in 2023, with home prices likely the most vulnerable in the first and second quarter of the year. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points year. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. There were 73 homes sold in December this . Here are Utahs metropolitan areas with the hottest housing markets for volume. The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 27 days compared to the same period in 2021. One will often find him drawing, doing toy photography, or dabbling in other geeky stuff when he's not helping investors make smarter decisions. Utah benefits from a strong economy, and, despite Utah housing prices being higher than the national average, there is still more demand for houses than available inventory. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States.. Do not sell or share my personal information. And to Branca, that meant home ownership became completely inaccessible.. Wallethub found Utah is the. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. Median home price for Salt Lake residents over the last year was $564,062. Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. However, the sale volume has decreased significantly in the past year, with 3,219 houses sold in September 2021, representing a 26.7% decline in year-over-year comparisons. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Since the pandemic began, housing prices in the Beehive State have skyrocketed to the point that more than 50% of households can no longer afford to buy median-priced properties in the state. If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. He expects buyers and sellers will step back and wait for the dust to settle, many of them locked in at low, 3% mortgage rates that helped send the nations housing market into a frenzy in 2020 and 2021. Forecast for 2022 High prices, likely interest rates increases, listing . We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. Heres why, Why are house prices so high? Why is it taking two weeks, a month, six weeks?. Even before COVID swept across the world, the Utah housing market was already out of reach for 63% of renter households. With uncertainty in the economy, predictions for Utahs housing market vary greatly. Even with the recent slowdown, a correctly priced home will sell, and it will sell with record equity growth over the last 10-year average. Woods research colleague at the Kem C. Gardner Institute , Dejan Eskic, is more bearish, predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. To Eskic, 2022 was the year of the Fed. In his mind, it was a federal miscalculation to raise borrowing rates so high and so fast after two runaway years. Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! With rates hitting record lows of 2%, things are about to change in 2022 as recent trends on 30-year fixed mortgages have already come very close to 3%. Utah faces a shortage of 31,000 homes. If rates had risen to around 4.5%, the train would still go. They can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? Months supply of inventory: 3 - up from 1 in September 2021. Hes employed as a professional actor and director of marketing and advertising at Hale Center Theater Orem, as well as director of communications at the Salt Lake Acting Company. . If one were to understand what the Utah housing market forecast 2022 is implying here is that renters are facing bigger challenges of acquiring their own properties. Hes predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. Cache County Housing Market Trends. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. It took an average of 55 days to sell a home during the fourth quarter. Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022, Preston Hicks Real Estate Group - JMG Utah, What does exclusive right to sell mean? Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. How is the real estate market in Utah? From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. A bubble is highly unlikely at this point in time because a bubble is defined as a prolonged period of actual price decline, not moderation or deceleration. He has a background in sales and marketing and construction as a Project Superintendent. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. Hang in there. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. According to him, about half a million Californians browsed the website UtahRealEstate.com in search of property to buy. This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. High-cost areas like San Francisco, he said, will see a 15% price decline. Winter sports are a highlight in Utah. Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. It has been one of if not the most competitive markets in the US in 2021. Powell, the Feds chairman, has indeed called it a pandemic frenzy housing bubble, but he and other experts all have consistently said its not like 2007 and 2008. Love hunting, fishing, or anything outdoors? With the market starting to change, weve seen a decrease of 25.3% in sales in the Utah housing market, and 49% of homes had price drops. Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Three of the top ten most overvalued US housing markets are in Utah. Thats when buyers found their affordability ceiling. shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978," wrote James Wood in the 2022 Housing Forecast Executive Report. Theycan also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Still seemed achievable. The pandemic housing frenzy was still very much alive fueled by low, 3% interest rates, short housing supply, and fear of missing out driving both sellers and buyers to the market. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. Please check your email to verify your account. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. With the rise of interest rates, a significant economic shift is occurring and we will likely see Utah home sales temper buyer demand. whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Utah has seen a significant increase in population over the past decade, which will likely help with the influx of home listings once everyone gets used to the new lending rates. Sales fell across the board compared to both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the third quarter of 2022. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. AirDNA vs. Mashvisor: Which One Is the Better Source of Airbnb Data? The cops came and busted everyone.. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. All Rights Reserved. If inflation continues to fall, as I expect it will, rates will continue to drop. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%.